South Africa travel to Leeds this week knowing that a win in the Headingley Test will take them to number one in the world. They will go in with the confidence of a comprehensive win at the Oval and know that they face an English side who have been a bit out of sorts since their annus mirabilis of 2011.
For England, there will be at least one change to the XI who were beaten by an innings: Bopara has withdrawn from the squad due to personal reasons. He is replaced by James Taylor. Taylor has looked close to being the ‘next man in’ for England, but had a poor 2011 for Leicestershire and as captain of the Lions. He has looked better so far this year, however, and that combined with his clear talent has got him back into the side over Jonny Bairstow and the in-form Nick Compton.
There may be other changes for England as well. Stuart Broad did not look fully fit at the Oval and there is no reason why he should play instead of Steven Finn if the former is not one hundred per cent fit. Finn may play either way; with England looking short of variety in taking only two wickets at the Oval there is good cause to bring Finn in for either Tim Bresnan or possibly instead of Taylor. Given the conservatism previously shown by Flower, however, my hunch is that we will only see Finn if one of the other quicks is not fully fit.
South Africa need not make any changes and almost certainly will not. They took a day to find their feet in the first Test, but once they did they were comprehensively the better side. Kallis finally showed his true class in England and Amla was utterly magnificent. The only batsman to fail was Alviro Petersen, whose eleven ball duck contrasted sharply with the rest of the top order. The only question marks are over Rudolph and Duminy, neither of whom got to bat.
The result will likely come down to how much England improve from the Oval. The talk will be about the bowling and it almost goes without saying that they need to improve, but I think the real question will be about the batsmen. The bowlers had a poor Test, but they have been in good form, will have better conditions at Headingley and need only to look at some of South Africa’s recent results to know what they can achieve. The batsmen have not performed all year and their carelessness probably cost England a draw in the first Test. Headingley has been very much a result ground in recent years and I think it will come down to whether England’s batsmen can survive tough patches better than they did at the Oval. My ‘gut feeling’ is that they will and England will win a very close Test. I do expect it to be a near run thing, however, with a tight run chase either way.
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Article by Badon Decker
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